Partisan types. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. . In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. One is that it illustrates how Johnson has come back from poor ratings before. He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. Another factor that could affect the vote which bodes well for Republicans is the enthusiasm factor, which typically drives the turnout and can be critical in a swing state like Wisconsin. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Trump is quite unpopular here. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. The American Independent is the No. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. R+23. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. Richard Nixon 1969-74. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. Can we marry dogs? Cant fix stupid or true believers. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. But a lot has changed in the last few months. . Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive,Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. 1 digital platform for progressive news, reaching millions of people each month. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. A Morning Consult poll earlier this year had Johnson's approval rating at 36 percent. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. Democratic Lt. Gov. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. Its based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 that its a good idea to think about politicians popularity in the context of their states partisanship. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. Become a member for $9/month. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. 2022 Governors Elections (39) Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. Price: US $0.99. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. Let's get into the rationale for these changes. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Michels has quickly jumped to the lead in the Republican primary, with 27% of the vote versus 26% for Kleefisch, 10% for former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and 3% for Rep. Timothy Ramthun. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. Independent Sens. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. The fact that Johnsons negatives have spiked among Democrats and liberals may not be a big deal, since these are voters very unlikely to support him anyway. Plus 18to minus 20 among voters 70 and older (the sharpest decline among any group we looked at). In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were first conducted by George Gallup (estimated to be 1937) to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race. Right now, the Democrats are trying to steal this election blah, blah, blah!. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. Early polling indicates a tight race. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. Got a confidential news tip? Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. But its worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. I'm just trying to convey the truth. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District Need to report an error? 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. But partisanship isnt the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senators popularity can still make a difference. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations.
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