2016 bellwether counties 2016 bellwether counties

In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. In 2020, a single. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Their hopes are real. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! But it's also not unprecedented. Demographics (84) George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". But that's no longer the case. Joe Biden (631) Not anymore. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Until this year. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Contributors wanted More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . They simply vote on merit. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Telegram Telegram This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Read about our approach to external linking. Here's why. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Website Updates Paused A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. 2020 Election (1210) It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Found an error on our site? If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Trump gave them hope. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Their concerns are real. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Nobody forgot about politics.". Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. . Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Jeff. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. i.e. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. All Rights Reserved. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. In their . Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. 03:30. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote!